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Complex is complex, no way out of it. But analyzing hypothesis, what about Occam’s razor?

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Occam's razor is a tool that was developed to decide between similarly proven hypotheses. It says that all else being equal, the argument that derives the conclusion with the least premises wins. It is not a suggestion that simplicity in itself is the best criteria to decide whether something is good or not.

For a slightly clumsy example, consider that you have decided to go to a fancy restaurant and you want to get a great steak. But everything is expensive so you decide to get the cheapest steak. What you have done is pre-screened that all the steaks are good and then you get the cheapest one. It is a two step decision where cheapness is the deciding criteria in the second step. Whereas if you had decided you wanted a delicious steak and cheapness was how you would decide, you would end up eating something that tastes terrible.

Occam's Razor is similar in that it's a tool to be implied in the second of a two step process. After you have a set of equally rigorous outcomes, you should go with the one that got there with the least amount of fuss and complexity.

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There should be a third new quote, "If you can explain something complex to a tired 61 year old at 11 pm at night and he can still understand it, then you probably really know your shit." Congratulations.

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So true. I took an amazing “Physics for Poets” class which did wonders for my understanding and appreciating of the universe. However, the removal of the math clearly simplified it to the extent that I certainly wouldn’t claim to “understand” physics. I was a preschool teacher for forty years and my criterion for teaching the children a fact was that they wouldn’t have to subtract anything I taught them, even though they would have to add a great deal of complexity as they got older. A four year old can understand a lot of things at a concrete level but not much at all on an abstract level.

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Interesting essay.

I agree that experts are not necessarily good communicators, but your updated quotes must assume a level of expertise to be accurate.

Leaving aside expertise, presumably that's a 'given' in your examples, the idea of 'motivated beginner' is more properly described as "a good faith listener".

Among the many issues we face as a society is a dearth of critical thinking, a surplus of thoughts by those who lack expertise, and an ocean of bad faith.

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Couldn’t agree more. Simplicity is a guise for anti-intellectualism, it’s the refutation of nuance and can certainly be dangerous (fascism’s love of nostalgia for one). Not to oversimplify.

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Charlie, discussions of the reliability of where 'truth' might lie is intriguing for those involved in didactics. My truth is reading your work, your writings, your observations of life and characters. You were an iconic writer who I look forward to reading. Write on young man

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Thank you for getting back to me.

My point was that in these times simplicity, in terms of something that is immediately buyable and doesn’t need more that 120 characters to be explained, seems to be dominating.

Not much space for critical thinking, nuances and all the other brain fatiguing details.

Maybe it’s because I am currently reading a book by an Italian astrophysicist, about 5 intuitions that have radically changed our ideas about the Universe.

It’s wonderfully written in very clear and enjoyable Italian language (my own one) and clearly explained; I have a decent education and I love reading, nevertheless I frequently need to go over some points to get an understanding.

Complex is complex, and we should love the complexity and the stimulating challenges it poses.

Great chatting with you

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Great read and very much aligned with my own experiences and writing.

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June 29, 2023
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Yeah but at that level of abstraction it’s not really worth having definitions at all.

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